author/h-mcgovern/feed

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" > <channel> <title>Hamish McGovern, Author at Northmore Gordon</title> <atom:link href="https://northmoregordon.com/author/h-mcgovern/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/author/h-mcgovern/</link> <description>Energy Efficiency Consultancy Company</description> <lastBuildDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 07:14:20 +0000</lastBuildDate> <language>en-US</language> <sy:updatePeriod> hourly </sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency> 1 </sy:updateFrequency> <generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3</generator> <image> <url>https://northmoregordon.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/favicon-150x150.png</url> <title>Hamish McGovern, Author at Northmore Gordon</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/author/h-mcgovern/</link> <width>32</width> <height>32</height> </image> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – September 2026 Update</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-september-2026-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 07:14:20 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACCUs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)]]></category> <category><![CDATA[LGCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[PRCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Renewable Energy]]></category> <category><![CDATA[STCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEU Program]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=32978</guid> <description><![CDATA[Price Summary  Certificate  Open  Close  Range  Effective cap  Movement / Reason  PRC  $3.35  $3.40  $3.35 – $3.40  $3.80  ▲ Held August’s gains  ESC  $29.00  $29.65  $28.70 – $29.80  $51.23  ▲ Holding just below $30  VEEC  $83.50  $86.50  $83.50 – $87.00  $142.86  ▲ Firmer; high $87.00 (11 Sep)  ACCU  $38.95  $38.45  $38.00 – $38.95  $87.72  ▼... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-september-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – September 2026 Update</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Price Summary  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Certificate </td><td>Open </td><td>Close </td><td>Range </td><td>Effective cap </td><td>Movement / Reason </td></tr><tr><td>PRC </td><td>$3.35 </td><td>$3.40 </td><td>$3.35 – $3.40 </td><td>$3.80 </td><td>▲ Held August’s gains </td></tr><tr><td>ESC </td><td>$29.00 </td><td>$29.65 </td><td>$28.70 – $29.80 </td><td>$51.23 </td><td>▲ Holding just below $30 </td></tr><tr><td>VEEC </td><td>$83.50 </td><td>$86.50 </td><td>$83.50 – $87.00 </td><td>$142.86 </td><td>▲ Firmer; high $87.00 (11 Sep) </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>$38.95 </td><td>$38.45 </td><td>$38.00 – $38.95 </td><td>$87.72 </td><td>▼ Eased slightly </td></tr><tr><td>STC </td><td>$39.85 </td><td>$39.85 </td><td>$39.85 – $39.90 </td><td>$40.00 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Unchanged at cap </td></tr><tr><td>LGC </td><td>$8.40 </td><td>$7.85 </td><td>$7.10 – $8.40 </td><td>$92.86 </td><td>▼ drifting lower $7.10 (18 Sep) </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> Effective cap: for ESC, PRC, VEEC and LGC, the scheme shortfall penalty grossed up at the 30% company tax rate (where applicable).  PRCs held at $3.35-$3.40, keeping August’s gains. NSW DCCEEW confirmed the 2027-28 target stays at 8.5%, an estimated 70 million certificates by March 2029, versus roughly 4 million for 2026-27. Forward prices for delivery after around $3.00, with expected supply from the BESS3-BESS5 apartment and large C&I battery activities that began on 1 September. IPART banned seven NEOVOLT battery models on 8 September.  ESCs traded $28.70-$29.80, a fifth month below $30, closing at $29.65. Registrations stayed low under the 1 July Rule; market participants report audit timeframes are constraining some providers. Further Rule changes took effect on 7 September. Market participants note a sustained rise in registrations would may see prices soften.  VEECs firmed from $83.50 to $86.50, peaking at $87.00 on 11 September. The VEET Strategic Review Act received Royal Assent on 8 September, enabling faster changes to activity settings and targets. Higher co-payments for larger heating and cooling installs applied from 30 September; ceiling insulation Stage 2 and four new industrial heat methods started on 1 October. The state election is on 28 November.  STCs were flat at $39.85, trading no higher than $39.90. Mid-scale solar regulations were made on 17 September: systems above 100 kW to 1 MW installed from 1 October can create STCs, with a fixed five-year deeming period. The CER expects applications to open in mid to late November. The Clearing House was around 3.6 million STCs in surplus at the start of October.  LGCs opened at the month’s high of $8.40, fell to $7.10 on 18 September and closed at $7.85. The CER’s June quarter QCMR (9 September) reported record Q2 creations (15.2 million) and non-RET surrenders (5.5 million). It estimates a balance of 32.5-37.5 million LGCs at the end of the 2026 compliance period, with supply outpacing demand, though sentiment improved on expected data-centre demand.  ACCUs eased from $38.95 to $38.45 (range $38.00-$38.95). Safeguard Mechanism Review submissions closed on 18 September. On 10 September the Senate rejected, 34-27, a motion to disallow the Improved Native Forest Management method. The CER reported a record 10.9 million ACCUs issued in the first half of 2026. The 2026-27 cost containment price is $87.72.  For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.  <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Regulatory Update – Program by Program  NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2027-28 target confirmed: NSW DCCEEW will maintain the 8.5% target, an estimated 70 million certificates by March 2029. The 2026-27 target stays at 0.5%. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Rule changes: New ESS and PDRS Rules apply from 7 September (minor administrative changes for the PDRS). IPART’s PDRS Method Guide V3.1 (3 September) updates BESS1 and BESS2 evidence and registration requirements. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Equipment ban: Seven NEOVOLT battery models added to the PDRS prohibited list on 8 September. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Broader reform: The Department aims to publish further PDRS and ESS reform information later this year. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in October: 2026-27 scheme certificate target (IPART, by 31 October); BESS3-BESS5 registrations; peak demand period starts 1 November. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Third month under the 1 July Rule: Registrations remain low after closure of gas water heater, space heater and boiler activities, the end of Sale of New Appliances, and a lower confidence factor for larger F16/F17 heat pumps. Targets are 11.0%, 11.5% and 12.0% for 2026-2028. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Further Rule changes: In effect from 7 September across the ESS and PDRS. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Accreditation conditions: IPART consultation closed 28 August; response pending. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in October: Registrations under the 7 September Rule change; any Department reform publication. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Strategic Review Act in force: Act No. 37/2026 received Royal Assent on 8 September. It renames the VEET Act the Victorian Energy Upgrades Target Act, adds electrification objectives, expands ESC oversight and consumer protections, and allows faster adjustment of activity settings and targets. Consequential changes to the 2018 Regulations will follow. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Activity 6 (space heating and cooling): From 30 September, the minimum co-payment is $3,000 (incl. GST) for ducted systems and multi-splits of 10 kW cooling or more, with incentives capped for large multi-splits. Smaller multi-splits stay at $1,000. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Activity 48 (ceiling insulation): Stage 2 started 1 October, opening to all eligible Victorian homes. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>M&V Specifications V9.0: Four new industrial methods from 1 October: electric thermal energy storage, heat demand reduction, gas boiler efficiency and behind-the-meter biogas. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Hydronic heating: DEECA will proceed with a heat pump hydronic activity, proposed for Q2 2027. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Water heating review: Consultation on Activities 1 and 3 closes 18 October; response due late 2026. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Large businesses: Consultation on a Large Energy User Access Initiative opened 3 September. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Enforcement: MYOM Australia. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>State election (28 November): The new Act gives either party more flexibility on targets and activity settings. 2028-2030 targets must be set by 31 August 2027. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in October: Water heating consultation close (18 October); creation under new Activity 6 and 48 settings; draft consequential Regulations; pre-election VEU policy. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Safeguard Mechanism / Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Safeguard Mechanism Review: Submissions closed 18 September. The review focuses on post-2030 settings, including the 2030-35 baseline decline rate, and the cost containment measure. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Improved Native Forest Management method: The Senate rejected a disallowance motion 34-27 on 10 September; the method remains in force. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Issuance: 10.9 million ACCUs issued in H1 2026, up 1.4 million (15%) on H1 2025 (CER QCMR). </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Cost containment measure: $87.72 per ACCU for 2026-27, indexed at CPI plus 2%. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in October: Publication of review submissions and next steps; any Climate Change Authority advice. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) – LGCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>June quarter QCMR: Renewables supplied about 42% of NEM generation. Record Q2 creations of 15.2 million; 2026 supply tracking to the top of the CER’s 64-66 million projection. Record non-RET surrenders of 5.5 million; registry holdings up 25% year on year to 44.4 million. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Supply position: Estimated balance of 32.5-37.5 million LGCs at 16 February 2027. All vintages to 2030 have converged with spot since April. The 33,000 GWh obligation is fixed to 2030. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Data centres: Energy ministers met on 11 September. The AEMC has started its data-centre rule changes, including network augmentation cost recovery. REGO-based Commonwealth legislation is targeted for early 2027. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in October: AEMC rule change progress; Q3 voluntary surrenders, including government surrenders deferred from Q2. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – STCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Mid-scale solar legislated: Regulations amended 17 September. Systems above 100 kW to 1 MW installed from 1 October are eligible, with a fixed five-year deeming period. Systems up to 100 kW are unchanged; existing LRET-accredited mid-scale systems stay in the LRET. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Applications: Expected to open mid to late November; installs from 1 October can apply then. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Market activity: A record 45.5 million STCs changed hands in Q2, with some sellers using the open market rather than waiting for the Clearing House. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Heat pump water heater MEPS: DCCEEW exposure draft open until 5 October. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in October: CER readiness for mid-scale applications; Clearing House movements. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Consultations open or expected  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Scheme </td><td>Item </td><td>Status </td></tr><tr><td>VEU </td><td>Domestic water heating (Activities 1 and 3) </td><td>Open – closes 18 October 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>VEU </td><td>Large Energy User Access Initiative </td><td>Consultation opened 3 September 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>VEU </td><td>New hydronic heating activity </td><td>Response released 17 September; proposed Q2 2027 </td></tr><tr><td>SRES / VEU / ESS </td><td>Heat pump water heater MEPS exposure draft </td><td>Open – closes 5 October 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>Safeguard / ACCU </td><td>DCCEEW 2026-27 Safeguard Mechanism Review </td><td>Closed 18 September; next steps pending </td></tr><tr><td>NSW ESS / PDRS </td><td>IPART accreditation conditions </td><td>Closed 28 August; response pending </td></tr><tr><td>NSW PDRS </td><td>2026-27 scheme certificate target </td><td>IPART to publish by 31 October 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>LRET / REGO </td><td>Data-centre National Electricity Rule changes </td><td>AEMC process underway; legislation early 2027 </td></tr><tr><td>SRES </td><td>Mid-scale solar (100 kW – 1 MW) </td><td>Regulations made 17 September; applications mid to late November </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> Published by Northmore Gordon Environmental Pty Ltd (ABN 45 160 805 649, AFSL 533927) for general information only. It contains factual market information and is not financial product advice, investment advice or a recommendation to acquire, hold or dispose of any financial product. It does not consider any client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Statements attributed to market participants are reported commentary, not Northmore Gordon’s views or forecasts. Northmore Gordon and its related parties may hold or transact in the certificates and units referred to. Information is from sources believed reliable but is not warranted as accurate or complete. Past prices are not indicators of future performance. Services are available to wholesale clients only.  <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Get in touch: Hamish McGovern – <a href="mailto:h.mcgovern@northmoregordon.com">h.mcgovern@northmoregordon.com</a> – 1300 878 500 The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-september-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – September 2026 Update</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – August 2026 Update </title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-august-2026-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:37:24 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Northmore Gordon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Renewable Energy]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEECs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEU Program]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=32897</guid> <description><![CDATA[Price Summary  Certificate  Open  Close  Range  Effective cap  Movement / Reason  PRC  $2.70  $3.35  $2.70 – $3.35  $3.80  ▲ Rallied from 14 August on the 2027-28 target.  CY27 forwards trading at $3.05  ESC  $29.00  $29.00  $28.85 – $29.75  $51.23  ↔ Fourth month capped below $30  VEEC  $83.00  $84.00  $82.00 – $84.00  $142.86  ▲ Sideways, firmer... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-august-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – August 2026 Update </a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Price Summary  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Certificate </td><td>Open </td><td>Close </td><td>Range </td><td>Effective cap </td><td>Movement / Reason </td></tr><tr><td>PRC </td><td>$2.70 </td><td>$3.35 </td><td>$2.70 – $3.35 </td><td>$3.80 </td><td>▲ Rallied from 14 August on the 2027-28 target.  CY27 forwards trading at $3.05 </td></tr><tr><td>ESC </td><td>$29.00 </td><td>$29.00 </td><td>$28.85 – $29.75 </td><td>$51.23 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Fourth month capped below $30 </td></tr><tr><td>VEEC </td><td>$83.00 </td><td>$84.00 </td><td>$82.00 – $84.00 </td><td>$142.86 </td><td>▲ Sideways, firmer into month end </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>$38.25 </td><td>$38.90 </td><td>$38.20 – $39.30 </td><td>$82.68 </td><td>▲ Drifted higher across the month </td></tr><tr><td>STC </td><td>$39.85 </td><td>$39.85 </td><td>$39.85 – $39.85 </td><td>$40.00 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Unchanged in every session </td></tr><tr><td>LGC </td><td>$7.10 </td><td>$7.70 </td><td>$6.90 – $9.00 </td><td>$92.86 </td><td>▲ Spike to $9.00, then gave back most of it </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> Open and close are the first quoted prices on or after the start and end of the month.   Effective cap is the scheme shortfall penalty grossed up at the 30% company tax rate (penalty ÷ 0.70), except for STC and ACCUs.  STCs were the month’s largest policy development; on 5 August the Australian Government announced it will expand Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) eligibility to solar PV systems above 100 kW and up to 1 MW, intended to systems installed from 1 October 2026 (subject to regulations being finalised). Note that the STC factor for mid-scale solar will be based on a five-year deeming period each year to 2030, rather than the annual step-down. The CER has said applications will not open until mid to late November 2026.  LGCs traded a wide range on data-centre policy speculation. National Cabinet agreed on 26 August that the Commonwealth will work with states and territories on mandatory standards for large data centres covering energy, water and land use, with legislation intended in early 2027. Separately, the AEMC’s 5 August advice to Energy Ministers proposes that data centres offset their demand using certificates linked to new renewable generation under the Renewable Electricity Guarantee of Origin (REGO) scheme, with firming contracted alongside, and recognises a need for bridging arrangements allowing certificates from existing projects for a period.  PRCs rose over the second half of the month following the announcement on 14 August that the NSW 2027-28 PDRS target would be maintained at 8.5%, against the 0.5% set for 2026-27. On the most recent published forecast peak demand, an 8.5% target implies a scheme certificate target of the order of 68 million PRCs, compared with roughly 4 million for 2026-27. Forward prices after March 2027 are lower at $3.05 due to the lower target. The three new C&I battery activities, BESS3, BESS4 and BESS5, commenced on 1 September 2026.    VEECs were steady. The Energy and Resources Legislation Amendment (VEET Strategic Review and Other Matters) Bill 2026 passed the Legislative Assembly on 13 August and the Legislative Council on 28 August, completing passage through both Houses; Royal Assent is the remaining step. The regulator (ESC) took further accreditation action during the month against A.K. Alvi Enterprises, Discount LEDs, Royal One, Eco Assets Manager, 0Carbon, Add On Services (Solar On Roof) and Renewable Energy (Re-Energi).  ESCs were quiet, with limited registrations and thin reported spot volume, and the market held between $28.85 and $29.75 for a fourth consecutive month below $30. The registry surplus continues to be drawn down rather than replenished.  ACCUs drifted higher across the month. DCCEEW released the consultation paper for the 2026-27 Review of the Safeguard Mechanism on 7 August, with written submissions due 18 September 2026.  For daily pricing and charts, visit Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page: <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/</a>  Regulatory Update – Program by Program  <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2027-28 target reported as maintained at 8.5%: Market reports on 14 August indicated the 2027-28 scheme target would be held at 8.5%, rather than reduced as the 2026-27 target was on 31 October 2025. The targets set in the Regulation run 5.5% for 2025-26, 7.5% for 2026-27 (reduced to 0.5%), 8.5% for 2027-28 and 10% from 2029-30. A target change must be made before the 31 October deadline in the year preceding the compliance period, so 31 October 2026 remains the operative date for any change to 2027-28. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>BESS3–BESS5 commence 1 September 2026: BESS3 covers apartment buildings of at least four dwellings, capped at 5 kWh per apartment; BESS4 small and medium business, above 20 kWh and up to 200 kWh usable, with homes and data centres excluded; and BESS5 commercial, industrial and community, above 200 kWh and up to 30 MWh with the incentive calculated on the first 10 MWh. Usable capacity is assessed at 90% of nameplate, a higher coefficient applies where new solar is installed alongside, and BESS4 and BESS5 can each be claimed once per site. Minimum customer contributions apply. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>DCCEEW’s published estimate is unchanged: around 22 million additional certificates needed by March 2028 and at least 13.5 million by March 2027. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in September: BESS3–BESS5 registrations from 1 September; the Safeguard Rule change scheduled to take effect 7 September; any departmental publication confirming the 2027-28 target ahead of 31 October. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Second month under the 1 July Rule: Registration volumes remained low following closure of the gas water heater, space heater and boiler activities (D11/D12/D21, F8/F9), the end of the Sale of New Appliances method, and the 30% cut to the confidence factor for F16/F17 heat pumps at 10 kW and above. Legislated targets are 11.0%, 11.5% and 12.0% for 2026, 2027 and 2028, rising 0.5% a year to 13% in 2030. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Further Safeguard Rule change from 7 September 2026: A second Energy Security Safeguard Rule change affecting both the ESS and PDRS is scheduled to commence on 7 September 2026. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>IPART consultation on accreditation conditions: IPART consulted on changes to Accreditation Notices and accreditation conditions imposed on ACPs under both schemes, with submissions closing 28 August 2026. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in September: Registry data under the new Rule; the 7 September Rule commencement. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Strategic Review Bill passed both Houses: The Energy and Resources Legislation Amendment (VEET Strategic Review and Other Matters) Bill 2026 passed the Legislative Assembly on 13 August and the Legislative Council on 28 August. The Bill provides for more dynamic adjustment of per-activity certificate settings and annual targets, updates the scheme objectives to support electrification, and expands the Essential Services Commission’s compliance and enforcement powers. Royal Assent is outstanding. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Targets: 2026 and 2027 targets are set in the VEET Regulations (4.4M and 4.6M respectively). Targets for 2028 to 2030 must be set by 31 August 2027 and will follow the Strategic Review. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Space heating and cooling: Changes to system design and sizing requirements for multi-split reverse-cycle air conditioners under the Part 6 activity are proposed to take effect from 30 September 2026. Market participants have pointed to incentive caps and increased co-payments for multi-split systems as a factor in creation volumes over the remainder of the calendar year. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Window upgrade activities: The ESC consulted on training and competency requirements for Activities 13 and 14, closing 14 August 2026, with updated VEET Guidelines and program guides expected on 7 September 2026. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Enforcement: Accreditation was cancelled or suspended during the month in respect of A.K. Alvi Enterprises, Discount LEDs, Royal One, Eco Assets Manager, 0Carbon, Add On Services (Solar On Roof) and Renewable Energy (Re-Energi). </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>State election (28 November 2026): The Coalition released its energy platform on 19 August, including removing the gas connection ban, an Energy Security Requirement to underpin new gas-fired generation, and cancellation of VNI West. Betting markets moved further toward a Coalition government during the month. Under the Bill as passed, either party would have greater flexibility to adjust targets and per-activity settings. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in September: Royal Assent and commencement provisions; the 7 September Guidelines release; any pre-election policy detail on the VEU program itself. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Safeguard Mechanism / Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2026-27 Safeguard Mechanism Review consultation opened 7 August: Written submissions are due by 11:59pm AEST, 18 September 2026. Published scope includes scheme coverage arrangements (including whether the 100,000 tonne CO₂-e coverage threshold should change), the future role of Safeguard Mechanism Credits, ACCUs and international units, incentives for onsite abatement, arrangements for trade-exposed facilities, the treatment of banking and borrowing beyond 2030, and whether the cost containment measure remains appropriate. Reporting has noted that a reduced threshold of 25,000 tonnes CO₂-e has been raised previously; DCCEEW analysis at the time of the 2023 reforms found a threshold of 25,000 or 50,000 tonnes would change the composition of covered facilities without covering significantly more emissions. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Climate Change Authority advice: The Authority’s consultation ran from 2 July to 9 August 2026 and informs its advice to Government on the Safeguard baseline decline rate for 2030-31 to 2034-35 and on the extent to which onsite abatement is being driven by the 2023 reforms. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Scheme data: The Q2 2026 QCMR data workbook is available; the full Quarterly Carbon Market Report is expected mid-September 2026. The Q1 2026 report recorded 5.5 million ACCUs issued and 2026 issuance on track for 22 to 26 million. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in September: Submissions to the Safeguard review (closing 18 September); publication of the full Q2 2026 QCMR. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) – LGCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Data-centre framework: National Cabinet on 26 August agreed to develop consistent mandatory standards for large data centres covering energy, water and land use, with Commonwealth legislation intended in early 2027. Positions on the renewable energy requirement remain contested between the Commonwealth and some states. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>AEMC advice: The AEMC’s 5 August advice proposes four elements — an obligation to offset demand with certificates linked to new renewable generation via the REGO scheme, an accompanying firming obligation, NEM market registration for data centres above a threshold, and support for demand flexibility and co-location. The AEMC estimates roughly 12 months to implement the certificate obligation and 24 to 36 months for registration and connection reforms after ministerial endorsement. National Electricity Rule change requests were due for ECMC consideration in September 2026. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Supply position: The LRET obligation remains fixed at 33,000 GWh to 2030. The Q1 2026 QCMR projected the surplus reaching around 35 million by February 2027. Reported CAL27 to CAL30 forwards traded in a $6.75 to $7.75 band in the week to 21 August. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in September: ECMC consideration of the Rule change requests; the full Q2 2026 QCMR. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – STCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Eligibility expanded to 1 MW from 1 October 2026: Announced 5 August, subject to regulations. Eligibility criteria will include a maximum system size of 1 MW for new installations, a maximum combined capacity of 1 MW for expansions to existing systems, SRES installer and product accreditation, a written installer statement (designer and retailer statements will not be required for mid-scale solar), and compliance with electrical safety, planning and network connection requirements. Existing accredited large-scale systems remain under LRET arrangements. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Deeming: The STC factor for mid-scale solar will be based on a five-year deeming period each year to 2030. Systems at or below 100 kW continue under existing arrangements, including the annual step-down. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Applications: The CER has said applications will not open until mid to late November 2026, with assessment beginning after that. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Target-setting mechanics: The 2026 small-scale technology percentage is 11.67%, set on an estimate of 24.1 million STC creations for the year. The STP must be set by regulation by 31 March each year; non-binding estimates published for 2027 and 2028 are 10.75% and 7.77%. Volumes created from mid-scale solar between 1 October and 31 December 2026 were not in the modelling underlying the 2026 STP; the STP formula includes a cumulative adjustment for over- or under-creation in previous years, which is the mechanism through which any such volume would be reflected in a later year’s percentage. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Interaction with the PDRS: From 1 September, NSW battery projects can access PRCs under BESS3–BESS5 alongside federal STCs for any accompanying new solar PV. Projects should be modelled across both schemes together. </li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Consultations open or expected  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Scheme </td><td>Item </td><td>Status </td></tr><tr><td>Safeguard / ACCU </td><td>DCCEEW 2026-27 Safeguard Mechanism Review consultation paper </td><td>Open — closes 18 September 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>Safeguard / ACCU </td><td>CCA 2026 Annual Progress Advice (includes Safeguard decline rate advice) </td><td>Closed 9 August 2026; advice pending </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>CCA fifth statutory review of the ACCU Scheme </td><td>To Minister August 2026; publication pending </td></tr><tr><td>SRES </td><td>Regulations for mid-scale solar (100 kW – 1 MW), including design, installation and compliance requirements </td><td>Announced 5 August; regulations pending </td></tr><tr><td>NSW ESS / PDRS </td><td>IPART — Accreditation Notices and accreditation conditions </td><td>Closed 28 August 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>NSW PDRS </td><td>2027-28 scheme target </td><td>Reported 14 August as maintained at 8.5%; Regulation deadline 31 October 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>VEU </td><td>Space heating and cooling — further Part 6 changes </td><td>Consultation paper flagged for later in 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>VEU </td><td>Window upgrade activities (13 and 14) — training and competency </td><td>Closed 14 August 2026; guidelines expected 7 September 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>LRET / REGO </td><td>Data centre National Electricity Rule change requests </td><td>With the AEMC; ECMC consideration September 2026 </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> This newsletter is published by Northmore Gordon Environmental Pty Ltd (ABN 45 160 805 649, AFSL 533927) for general informational purposes. It contains factual market information on Australian environmental certificate markets. It does not constitute financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to acquire, hold or dispose of any financial product, and has been prepared without considering any client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not warranted as accurate or complete. Past prices and market movements are not indicators of future performance. The financial services referred to are available to wholesale clients only.  Get in touch: Hamish McGovern – <a href="mailto:h.mcgovern@northmoregordon.com">h.mcgovern@northmoregordon.com</a> – 1300 878 500 The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-august-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – August 2026 Update </a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – July 2026 Update.</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-july-2026-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 02:10:04 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACCU]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[PRC]]></category> <category><![CDATA[REGO]]></category> <category><![CDATA[STC]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEEC]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEU Program]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=32809</guid> <description><![CDATA[Price Summary  Certificate  Open  Close  Range  Tax-effective cap  Movement / Reason  PRC  $3.00  $3.00  $3.00 – $3.05  $3.80  ↔ Spot flat; 2027 forwards ~$2.70  ESC  $29.25  $29.00  $28.50 – $29.75  $51.23  ↔ Third month capped below $30  VEEC  $82.00  $83.00  $82.00 – $87.00  $142.86  ↔ Early-month rally faded  ACCU  $37.90  $38.25  $37.80 – $38.30  $82.68 ... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-july-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – July 2026 Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Price Summary  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Certificate </td><td>Open </td><td>Close </td><td>Range </td><td>Tax-effective cap </td><td>Movement / Reason </td></tr><tr><td>PRC </td><td>$3.00 </td><td>$3.00 </td><td>$3.00 – $3.05 </td><td>$3.80 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Spot flat; 2027 forwards ~$2.70 </td></tr><tr><td>ESC </td><td>$29.25 </td><td>$29.00 </td><td>$28.50 – $29.75 </td><td>$51.23 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Third month capped below $30 </td></tr><tr><td>VEEC </td><td>$82.00 </td><td>$83.00 </td><td>$82.00 – $87.00 </td><td>$142.86 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Early-month rally faded </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>$37.90 </td><td>$38.25 </td><td>$37.80 – $38.30 </td><td>$82.68 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Narrow band </td></tr><tr><td>STC </td><td>$39.85 </td><td>$39.90 </td><td>$39.85 – $39.90 </td><td>$40.00 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Stable </td></tr><tr><td>LGC </td><td>$7.25 </td><td>$7.10 </td><td>$4.60 – $7.25 </td><td>$92.86 </td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Round trip via $4.60 </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> Tax-effective cap: the scheme shortfall penalty grossed up at the 30% company tax rate (penalty ÷ 0.70), except ACCU Safeguard Cost-containment price shown.  <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> PRCs Spot held at $3.00, touching $3.05, while forwards into March–April 2027 (for CY2026 compliance) traded around $2.70 with limited retailer buying beyond that. On 1 July NSW published a new PDRS Rule reopening BESS1 and introducing three new battery activities from 1 September: BESS3 (20-200kWh) for apartments, BESS4 (20-200kWh) for small and medium business, and BESS5 (200kWh-10MWh) for commercial and industrial sites. BESS3,4,5 are the largest change to the scheme’s supply base since BESS1 was suspended in July 2025.  ESCs traded between $28.50 and $29.75 and closed at $29.00, holding between $28 and $30 for a third consecutive month. Creation remained low following the end of the Commercial Lighting Formula and the 1 July closure of the gas water heater, space heater and boiler activities. The surplus continues to be drawn.  VEECs opened at $82.00, rallied to $87.00 on 13 July and eased back to $83.00. Creation ran at 100,000 to 110,000 certificates per week, predominantly from space heating and cooling, and remains ahead of the run-rate required for the 4.4 million 2026 target. Some market participants have attributed the price level to limited spot liquidity rather than to underlying scarcity.  ACCUs opened at $37.90, traded between $37.80 and $38.30, and closed at $38.25.  STCs moved five cents across the month, opening at $39.85 and closing at $39.90, with the $40 Clearing House price the practical anchor.  LGCs opened at $7.25, traded as low as $4.60 mid-month and recovered to close at $7.10-a round trip that leaves June’s re-rating largely intact. The supply position is unchanged: the Clean Energy Regulator’s Q1 2026 Quarterly Carbon Market Report projected the surplus reaching around 35 million by February 2027. The unresolved question is whether any future data-centre requirement would be met by existing certificates or would require new generation.  For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.  <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Regulatory Update – Program by Program  NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>New battery activities (1 July Rule): BESS1 and BESS2 reopened from 1 July. Three new activities apply to installations from 1 September 2026: BESS3, apartment buildings of at least four dwellings, capped at 5 kWh per apartment; BESS4, small and medium business, above 20 kWh and up to 200 kWh usable, with homes and data centres excluded; and BESS5, commercial, industrial and community, above 200 kWh and up to 30 MWh with the incentive calculated on the first 10 MWh. Usable capacity is assessed at 90% of nameplate, a higher coefficient applies where new solar is installed alongside, and BESS4 and BESS5 can each be claimed once per site. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2026-27 target cut from 7.5% to 0.5%: The targets set in the Regulation run 5.5% for 2025-26, 7.5% for 2026-27, 8.5% for 2027-28 and 10% from 2029-30. On 31 October 2025 DCCEEW reduced the 2026-27 target to 0.5%, the same percentage as the scheme’s first compliance period. On the most recent published forecast peak demand of 13,403 MW, that is the difference between a scheme certificate target of roughly 60 million PRCs and roughly 4 million. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2027-28 remains set at 8.5%: On the same basis that implies a target of the order of 68 million PRCs. It can only be amended by Regulation up to 31 October 2026, and DCCEEW has said it intends to consult on revised options during 2026; that consultation has not yet opened. DCCEEW separately estimates that around 22 million additional certificates will be needed by March 2028 and at least 13.5 million by March 2027. Market participants have identified the combination of an unresolved 2027-28 target and a potentially material new supply source from 1 September as the principal source of forward-price uncertainty. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in August: Opening of the 2027-28 target consultation; method guide material for BESS3–BESS5; C&I battery pipelines ahead of 1 September. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>First full month under the 1 July Rule: July was the first full month following closure of the gas water heater, space heater and boiler activities (D11/D12/D21, F8/F9), the end of the Sale of New Appliances method, and the 30% cut to the confidence factor for F16/F17 heat pumps at 10 kW and above. These are partly offset by air conditioning eligibility for multi-split and large systems above 65 kW and an increased F2 lifetime. Registration volumes remained low, with the surplus drawn down against legislated targets of 11.0%, 11.5% and 12.0% for 2026, 2027 and 2028. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in August: Registry data for the first full month under the new Rule; any DCCEEW signal on new high-volume activities. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Strategic Review Bill still before Parliament: The Energy and Resources Legislation Amendment (VEET Strategic Review and Other Matters) Bill 2026 was introduced on 17 June and read a second time on 18 June. The Scrutiny of Acts and Regulations Committee reported on it in Alert Digest No. 9 on 28 July, and it was listed for resumption of second-reading debate in the Legislative Assembly’s 28–30 July sitting week. The Bill provides for more dynamic adjustment of both per-activity certificate factors and annual targets. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Space heating and cooling review: DEECA has released its response to the Space Heating and Cooling Survey. Changes to system design and sizing requirements for multi-split reverse-cycle air conditioners under the Part 6 activity are proposed to take effect from 30 September 2026, with a further consultation paper flagged for later in 2026. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>State election (November 2026):  The new legislation will hand the government in power the ability to adjust quite quickly both the targets and the per activity factors, reducing certainty for the industry. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in August: Progress of the Bill through both Houses; secondary-instrument detail on activity factors and target setting. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Safeguard Mechanism / Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Climate Change Authority consultation closes 9 August: The Authority’s 2026 Annual Progress Advice consultation opened 2 July and closes 9 August 2026. The Authority is advising Government on the Safeguard baseline decline rate for 2030-31 to 2034-35 and on the extent to which onsite abatement is being driven by the 2023 reforms, and has commissioned modelling as one input. Targeted consultation runs July to September. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2026-27 Safeguard Mechanism Review: DCCEEW has said it will release a consultation paper early in the second half of 2026, with policy positions and any draft rule amendments in early 2027. The paper had not been released as at 31 July. Published scope covers scheme coverage arrangements, the future role of Safeguard Mechanism Credits, ACCUs and international units, incentives for onsite abatement, arrangements for trade-exposed facilities, and the Carbon Leakage Review recommendations. The Safeguard currently applies to facilities emitting more than 100,000 tonnes CO₂-e a year. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>CCA ACCU Scheme review due: The Authority’s fifth statutory review of the ACCU Scheme is scheduled to go to the Minister in August 2026, with publication shortly afterwards. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in August: Release of the Safeguard consultation paper; publication of the ACCU Scheme review; the Q2 2026 Quarterly Carbon Market Report (the data workbook is already available). </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) – LGCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Supply position unchanged: The Q1 2026 QCMR projected the surplus reaching around 35 million by February 2027 against the fixed 33,000 GWh obligation. Separately, data centres are expressly excluded from the new PDRS BESS4 and BESS5 activities-a different policy question from renewable electricity procurement, but an indication that data-centre load is being treated distinctly in scheme design. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>REGO transition: DCCEEW has completed consultation on the third tranche of the Guarantee of Origin Rules and subordinate legislation specific to renewable electricity. REGO is the successor certification mechanism as the LRET closes at the end of 2030. </li> <li>Clean Energy Council: Proposed the Flexible Contracting Framework for data centres to match their grid consumption with new renewable generation, met through a combination of Additional Firmed Renewables (PPA, direct investment) and certificates (LGCs until 2030 and REGOs thereafter) sourced from new projects. </li> <li>Watch in August: Any further policy signal on data-centre additionality; Q2 2026 QCMR creation volumes. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – STCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Stable at $39.85–$39.90: The 2026 STP continues to balance supply with demand, with the $40 Clearing House price acting as the practical anchor. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Interaction with the PDRS: From 1 September, NSW battery projects can access PRCs under BESS3–BESS5 alongside federal STCs for any accompanying new solar PV. Projects should be modelled across both schemes together. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Consultations open or expected  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Scheme </td><td>Item </td><td>Status </td></tr><tr><td>Safeguard / ACCU </td><td>CCA 2026 Annual Progress Advice (includes Safeguard decline rate advice) </td><td>Open-closes 9 August 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>Safeguard </td><td>DCCEEW 2026-27 Safeguard Review consultation paper </td><td>Expected early H2 2026; not yet released </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>CCA fifth statutory review of the ACCU Scheme </td><td>To Minister August 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>Carbon Credits and Other Legislation Amendment (Integrity and Transparency) Bill </td><td>Closed 22 May 2026; outcome pending </td></tr><tr><td>NSW PDRS </td><td>2027-28 scheme target </td><td>Flagged for 2026; Regulation deadline 31 October 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>VEU </td><td>Space heating and cooling-further Part 6 changes </td><td>Consultation paper flagged for later in 2026 </td></tr><tr><td>LRET / REGO </td><td>Guarantee of Origin Rules, tranche 3 (renewable electricity) </td><td>Closed; instruments pending </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> This newsletter is published by Northmore Gordon Environmental Pty Ltd (ABN 45 160 805 649, AFSL 533927) for general informational purposes. It contains factual market information on Australian environmental certificate markets. It does not constitute financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to acquire, hold or dispose of any financial product, and has been prepared without considering any client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not warranted as accurate or complete. Past prices and market movements are not indicators of future performance. The financial services referred to are available to wholesale clients only.  <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Get in touch: <a href="mailto:h.mcgovern@northmoregordon.com">Hamish McGovern</a> or call 1300 878 500  The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-july-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – July 2026 Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – June 2026 Update.</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-june-2026-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2026 06:09:04 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Northmore Gordon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Renewable Energy]]></category> <category><![CDATA[STCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEECs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEU Program]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=32592</guid> <description><![CDATA[Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director No separate May update was issued, with key staff on leave; this update covers June, with reference to late-May developments where relevant.  Price Summary  Certificate  Open  Close  Range  Movement / Reason  ESC  $29.00  $29.25  $29.00 – $30.60  Peaked early June, eased ~$1  VEEC  $88.85  $81.30  $81.30 – $88.85  VEU Strategic Review... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-june-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – June 2026 Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director No separate May update was issued, with key staff on leave; this update covers June, with reference to late-May developments where relevant.  <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Price Summary  <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Certificate </td><td>Open </td><td>Close </td><td>Range </td><td>Movement / Reason </td></tr><tr><td>ESC </td><td>$29.00 </td><td>$29.25 </td><td>$29.00 – $30.60 </td><td>Peaked early June, eased ~$1 </td></tr><tr><td>VEEC </td><td>$88.85 </td><td>$81.30 </td><td>$81.30 – $88.85 </td><td>VEU Strategic Review Bill introduced </td></tr><tr><td>ACCU </td><td>$37.60 </td><td>$37.85 </td><td>$37.60 – $38.20 </td><td>Broadly stable </td></tr><tr><td>STC </td><td>$38.65 </td><td>$38.85 </td><td>$38.65 – $38.85 </td><td>Stable </td></tr><tr><td>LGC </td><td>$2.60 </td><td>$7.00 </td><td>$2.60 – $9.00 </td><td>Data-centre demand attention </td></tr></tbody></table></figure> ESCs opened June at $29.00 and peaked at $30.60 in early June, before easing by around a dollar to close the month at $29.25. Creation was low across May and June following the end of the Commercial Lighting Formula, with an end-of-vintage lift into the 30 June deadline from Metered Baseline Method (MBM), Home Energy Efficiency Retrofits (HEER), PIAM&V and Building Envelope activities. On 1 July, prices moved back toward $30.50 following the announcement of the ESS rule change (see below).  VEECs opened June at $88.85 and closed at $81.30. Creation ran above target through the month, with an end-of-financial-year lift into the 30 June vintage cut-off. Following the introduction and first reading of the Victorian Energy Upgrades Strategic Review Bill in Parliament on 17 June, prices declined over the second half of the month. Several market participants have characterised the Bill’s provisions for more dynamic adjustment of activity factors and annual targets as a source of additional uncertainty.  ACCUs opened at $37.60, reached $38.20 late in June and closed at $37.85, trading within a narrow band through the month.  STCs moved within a tight ±$0.10 band, opening at $38.65 and closing at $38.85, with supply and demand broadly balanced under the 2026 STP.  LGCs opened June at $2.60 and closed around $7.00, trading as high as approximately $9.00 intraday. The move followed increased market attention on the potential for data-centre electricity demand to require the procurement of renewable generation.  <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.  <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Regulatory Update – Program by Program  NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>ESS Rule Change Announced (1 July): The second round of Safeguard amendments has been gazetted, effective 1 July, with new battery activities held back to 1 September. On the ESS side, the gas water heater, space heater and boiler activities (D11/D12/D21, F8/F9) closed 30 June, the Sale of New Appliances (SONA) method has ended, and the confidence factor for the F16/F17 heat pump activities has been reduced by 30% for units 10kW and above. This is partly offset by air conditioning becoming eligible (multi-split and large systems above 65kW) and an uplift to the F2 activity lifetime. On balance, these changes point to easing ESC creation through H2 2026, against a surplus that is already being drawn down. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>End-of-Vintage Creation: The 30 June vintage cut-off drove an end-of-vintage lift, with creation of around 200,000 ESCs from a range of methods (MBM, HEER, PIAM&V and Building Envelope). </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in July: First registry data reflecting the 1 July rule change; weekly creation volumes following the closure of the gas activities. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>VEU Strategic Review Bill Introduced (17 June): The Energy and Resources Legislation Amendment (VEET Strategic Review and Other Matters) Bill 2026 was introduced and read a first time in the Legislative Assembly on 17 June, giving effect to the VEU Strategic Review. The Bill amends the Victorian Energy Efficiency Target Act 2007 (to be renamed the Victorian Energy Upgrades Target Act) and provides for more dynamic adjustment of both per-activity certificate factors and annual scheme targets. Industry bodies, including ESIA, have noted that a number of key design details are deferred to secondary instruments, and several market participants have characterised the adjustment powers as introducing additional uncertainty into the supply outlook. The target-setting process is not expected to be completed before the November state election. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Victorian State Election (November 2026): A Victorian state election is scheduled for November 2026. The Opposition has previously indicated it does not support the VEU program in its current form. Some market participants have noted this alongside the Bill as a factor in the second-half-of-month price movement. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Creation Above Target: VEEC creation ran above target through June, with an end-of-financial-year lift into the 30 June vintage cut-off. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in July: Progress of the Bill through Parliament; any secondary-instrument detail on activity factors and target-setting. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Safeguard Mechanism / Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>2026–27 Safeguard Mechanism Review Timing Confirmed: DCCEEW has confirmed it will commence the review of the Safeguard Mechanism in the second half of 2026. Per the department’s published timeline, a consultation paper is to be released early in the second half of 2026, followed by stakeholder engagement, with policy positions and any draft rule amendments expected in early 2027. The review will consider the future role of Safeguard Mechanism Credits, ACCUs and international units; whether the scheme is appropriately incentivising onsite abatement; arrangements for trade-exposed facilities; and the recommendations of the Carbon Leakage Review. The Climate Change Authority will advise on the baseline decline rate for 2030-31 to 2034-35. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Q1 2026 Quarterly Carbon Market Report (published 3 June): The CER’s Q1 report recorded ACCU issuances of 5.5 million units (up 79% year-on-year), retirements of nearly 9 million units (a record quarter, with Safeguard surrenders accounting for the substantial majority), and holdings of 56.5 million units as at end-March, down from the Q4 peak of 60.7 million but 10.5 million higher year-on-year. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Permanent Exit Arrangement (from 1 July 2026): Government carbon abatement contract holders may exit permanently from 1 July, delivering at least 25% of outstanding ACCUs at a discount on the exit payment. The Q1 report noted deliveries into the Cost Containment Measure reached 5.5 million units, up 15% quarter-on-quarter. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in July: Release timing of the Safeguard review consultation paper; permanent exit delivery volumes. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Large-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (LRET) – LGCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Data-Centre Demand in Focus: LGC spot rose from $2.60 at the start of June to around $7.00 at month end, trading as high as approximately $9.00 intraday. The move followed increased attention on data-centre electricity demand. The May 2026 Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council communiqué sought advice on whether data centres should invest in additional renewable generation and firming in the state where they operate, and AEMO’s 2026 Integrated System Plan treats data centres as a material planning variable, with more than 5 GW in the connections pipeline as at the end of the March 2026 quarter. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Additionality Question: A central question for the market is whether any data-centre obligation would require new renewable generation, in which case existing LGCs may not satisfy it, or whether existing generation would qualify. This distinction bears on whether new demand draws down the LGC surplus or supports the emerging Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin (REGO) market as the LRET scheme closes at the end of 2030. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Oversupply Persists: The Q1 QCMR confirmed the LGC market remains structurally oversupplied, with the surplus projected to reach around 35 million by February 2027. The June price move does not, on its own, change this underlying supply-demand imbalance. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in July: Any further policy signals on data-centre additionality requirements; the AEMC’s draft rule change on technical standards for large loads. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – STCs  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Stable Around $38.65–$38.85: STC spot moved within a tight band through June. The 2026 STP continues to balance supply with demand, with the Clearing House $40 ceiling acting as the practical price anchor. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Cheaper Home Batteries Program: Government continues to purchase battery STCs, supporting installation volumes following the 1 May 2026 deeming step-down. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Watch in July: Post-step-down battery installation volumes; clearing house queue dynamics. </li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.  <div style="height:0px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> This newsletter is published by Northmore Gordon Environmental Pty Ltd (ABN 45 160 805 649, AFSL 533927) for general informational purposes. It contains factual market information and commentary on Australian environmental certificate markets. It does not constitute financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to acquire, hold or dispose of any financial product, and has been prepared without considering any client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not warranted as accurate or complete. Past prices and market movements are not indicators of future performance. Wholesale clients seeking tailored advice on environmental certificate are welcome to contact Northmore Gordon at 1800 878 500. The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-june-2026-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – June 2026 Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – April Update.</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-april-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2026 22:21:52 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Northmore Gordon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Renewable Energy]]></category> <category><![CDATA[STCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEECs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEU Program]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=32376</guid> <description><![CDATA[Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director Price Summary Certificate Open Close Range Movement/Reason ESC $23.50 $27.25 $23.50 – $27.25 ↑ CLF closure & forward supply uncertainty, even with v. large holdings VEEC $84.00 $88.00 $84.00 – $90.00 ↑ Compliance buying & heating  & cooling co-payment consultation ACCU $36.10 $37.80 $36.10 – $37.80 ↑... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-april-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – April Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Price Summary <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Certificate</td><td>Open</td><td>Close</td><td>Range</td><td>Movement/Reason</td></tr><tr><td>ESC</td><td>$23.50</td><td>$27.25</td><td>$23.50 – $27.25</td><td>↑ CLF closure & forward supply uncertainty, even with v. large holdings</td></tr><tr><td>VEEC</td><td>$84.00</td><td>$88.00</td><td>$84.00 – $90.00</td><td>↑ Compliance buying & heating  & cooling co-payment consultation</td></tr><tr><td>ACCU</td><td>$36.10</td><td>$37.80</td><td>$36.10 – $37.80</td><td>↑ Safeguard supply tightening</td></tr><tr><td>LGC</td><td>$3.00</td><td>$2.05</td><td>$2.05 – $3.00</td><td>↓ Sub-$2 territory tested; ongoing structural oversupply</td></tr><tr><td>STC</td><td>$39.60</td><td>$39.60</td><td>$39.55 – $39.65</td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Stable</td></tr></tbody></table></figure> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> ESCs rallied sharply from $23.50 to $27.25 – a 16% gain – as the market digested the post-CLF supply cliff. Despite ~20 million ESCs in registry holdings against the ~6.0 million 2026 surrender obligation, weekly creation rates have fallen sharply since the 31 March commercial lighting closure (from ~750,000+ certificates per week in late March to a fraction of that in April). With the tax-effective penalty around $52, there is meaningful headroom for further price appreciation. VEECs opened April at $84 and closed at $88, touching $90 mid-month. The 30 April retailer surrender deadline drove compliance buying, while a consultation of an increased minimum co-payment for ducted heating and cooling upgrades appears to have re-priced expectations on the supply side. Creation volumes have remained healthy and ahead of the run-rate needed for the 2026 target – making the magnitude of the price move somewhat surprising. ACCUs gained ground from $36.10 to $37.80, supported by the Safeguard FY25 surrender data release showing covered emissions exceeded baselines for the first time and a 1.6 million YoY step-down in SMC issuance. LGCs continued their structural decline, opening at $3.00 and closing just on $2.05 – testing sub-$2 territory for the first time. The forecast 64–66 million 2026 creations against a fixed 33,000 GWh LRET obligation continues to weigh on the market. STCs remained stable around $39.60 in a tight ±$0.05 band – supply and demand are well balanced under the 2026 STP. For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>. <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Regulatory Update – Program by Program NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Post-CLF Supply Collapse Confirmed: April was the first full month without the Commercial Lighting Formula (CLF) – the largest historical ESC creation activity. Weekly registration volumes have dropped sharply, and the market is now pricing the supply cliff that has been signalled since 2024. With ~20m ESCs in registry holdings against the 2026 surrender obligation of ~6.0m, the surplus is being run down rather than replenished – and with the 2026, 2027 and 2028 targets legislated at 11.0%, 11.5% and 12.0% (~6.0m, ~6.3m and ~6.5m ESCs respectively), the path to a meaningfully tighter market over 2026–2028 is now visible.</li> <li>PIAM&V Becomes More Attractive: With ESCs at $27 versus ~$15 a year ago, Project Impact Assessment with Measurement & Verification (PIAM&V) and Metered Basline Method (MBM) projects economics have changed materially. The tax-effective penalty headroom (~$52) leaves upside if no new high-volume creating activities are introduced.</li> <li>ESIA Snapshot Report: ESIA has published a Snapshot Report on the impact of recent activity changes – including job losses, stranded investment, sharp revenue declines, and loss of specialised delivery capability. The report has been provided to NSW DCCEEW officials.</li> <li>Watch in May: Continued registration data; any policy signals from NSW DCCEEW following ESIA engagement; and any signal on new high-volume activities to replace CLF supply.</li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Compliance Surrender (30 April): Retailers were required to surrender 2025-vintage VEECs by 30 April. Compliance buying – particularly from smaller retailers – was a key driver of April’s rally.</li> <li>Heating & Cooling Co-Payment Increase: A proposed increase in the minimum co-payment for ducted & multi-split heating and cooling (Activity 6) upgrades from $1,000 to $3,000 was a material catalyst – re-pricing the marginal cost of supply and reinforcing the price rises in April.   Consultation closed 29th April.</li> <li>Public consultation on the Industrial Heat Decarbonisation project-based activities (electric thermal energy storage, gas efficiency upgrades, behind-the-meter biogas) closed on 28 April.</li> <li>The newly announced hydronic space heating consultation remains open until 22 May.</li> <li>Imported Cost Pressure: Some market participants maybe factor potential supply-chain cost increases (Iranian conflict-related shipping/equipment) into a preference to buy now rather than later.</li> <li>New Activities Going Live: The new ceiling insulation activity specifications and registry updates have been released, with first-stage prioritisation for accredited persons engaged with Homes Victoria / community housing. The induction cooktop activity will continue under the program with several simplifications announced.</li> <li>Watch in May: Hydronic space heating consultation submissions (closes 22 May); ESIA VEU Seminar in Melbourne 21 May;</li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Safeguard Mechanism / Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>FY25 Safeguard Surrender Data Released: Per the CER’s mid-April release, 10.8 million ACCUs and 2.6 million SMCs were surrendered for the FY25 compliance period.  Facility emissions exceed the baseline by 13.7 Mt and SMC issuance was 6.7 million – a 1.6 million step-down on FY24 (8.3m). The tightening supply of free SMCs combined with covered emissions exceeding baselines may signal ACCU demand.</li> <li>New Savanna Fire Methods: Two new savanna fire management (SFM) methods commenced 11 April, with government estimating ~180 Mt CO₂e abatement over 25 years and $7.7 billion of potential value for Northern Australia. The new methods are designed to deliver stronger benefits to First Nations communities. Earlier SFM methods are being revoked.</li> <li>Permanent Exit Arrangement (1 July 2026): Government contract holders may exit permanently from 1 July, delivering ≥25% of outstanding ACCUs at a 60% discount on the exit payment. The volume potentially released to the secondary market remains the largest near-term supply-side risk.</li> <li>Safeguard Review (post-2030): The 2026–27 Safeguard Review will set decline rates for the 2030–35 period (and beyond). The current 4.9% per annum default decline rate runs through FY29-30. The big question is whether the Safeguard’s coverage will be extended to capture more abatement from smaller sites.</li> <li>Watch in May: Federal Budget; CER Q1 2026 Quarterly Carbon Market Report; pre-1 July signals on permanent exit volumes.</li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Large-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (LRET) – LGCs <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Sub-$2.00 Territory Tested: LGC spot tested below $2.00 in April for the first time, closing the month at $2.05. With CER forecasting 64–66 million LGC creations in 2026 against a fixed LRET obligation of ~33,000 GWh, the structural oversupply continues to deepen.</li> <li>82% by 2030 Question: At current LGC prices, the LRET is no longer providing a meaningful support for new large-scale renewable investment. The Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) is now the primary investment driver – but it remains an open question whether the federal 82% renewables-by-2030 target can be achieved with current policies.</li> <li>Voluntary Demand Opportunity: With LGCs trading near $2, this is an exceptionally cost-effective time for corporates with Scope 2 reduction obligations (e.g. SBTi) or voluntary net-zero commitments to surrender LGCs. For large manufacturers, the cost of using LGCs to address Scope 2 emissions has never been lower.</li> <li>Watch in May: Net Zero Fund registrations of interest now open ($5bn fund supporting hard-to-abate sectors); any further policy signals on data centre additionality requirements; Q1 2026 QCMR creation volumes.</li> </ul> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – STCs <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Stable at ~$39.60: STC spot moved within a ±$0.05 band through April. The 2026 STP balances supply with demand at this level; the Clearing House $40 ceiling continues to act as the practical price anchor.</li> <li>Cheaper Home Batteries Program – Step-Down from 1 May: From 1 May 2026, the rebate for solar batteries declines every 6 months (rather than annually) and is tiered by system size: 100% for 0–14 kWh, 60% for 14–28 kWh, and 15% for 28–50 kWh. Larger battery systems will earn materially fewer STCs from 1 May. Government continues to purchase battery STCs through a separate buy mechanism.</li> <li>Spillover Effect on Solar PV: The April battery rush appears to have pulled forward some larger rooftop solar systems (battery + larger PV combinations). Post-1 May, expect slower large-system run rates as the battery uplift moderates.</li> <li>Watch in May: Actual post-1 May battery installation volumes; clearing house queue dynamics; any indications of supply normalisation.</li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.  This newsletter is published by Northmore Gordon Environmental Pty Ltd (ABN 45 160 805 649, AFSL 533927) for general informational purposes. It contains factual market information and commentary on Australian environmental certificate markets. It does not constitute financial product advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to acquire, hold or dispose of any financial product, and has been prepared without considering any client’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not warranted as accurate or complete. Past prices and market movements are not indicators of future performance. Wholesale clients seeking tailored advice on environmental certificate are welcome to contact Northmore Gordon at 1800 878 500. <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-april-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – April Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – March Update.</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-march-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:41:54 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACCUs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ESS]]></category> <category><![CDATA[LGCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Market Update]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Northmore Gordon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[STCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEECs]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=32115</guid> <description><![CDATA[Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director Price Summary Certificate Open Close Range Movement/Reason ESC $22.60 $24.50 $22.00 – $24.50 ↑ Late surge VEEC $82.75 $84.00 $82.00 – $84.00 ↑ Compliance buying ACCU $36.25 $36.15 $36.15 – $36.85 ↔ End of safeguard buying STC $39.60 $39.65 $39.60 – $39.65 ↔ Stable LGC $4.00 $3.10... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-march-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – March Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director Price Summary <div class="wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="flex-basis:100%"> <figure class="wp-block-table is-style-regular"><table class="has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Certificate</td><td>Open</td><td>Close</td><td>Range</td><td>Movement/Reason</td></tr><tr><td>ESC</td><td>$22.60</td><td>$24.50</td><td>$22.00 – $24.50</td><td>↑ Late surge</td></tr><tr><td>VEEC</td><td>$82.75</td><td>$84.00</td><td>$82.00 – $84.00</td><td>↑ Compliance buying</td></tr><tr><td>ACCU</td><td>$36.25</td><td>$36.15</td><td>$36.15 – $36.85</td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> End of safeguard buying</td></tr><tr><td>STC</td><td>$39.60</td><td>$39.65</td><td>$39.60 – $39.65</td><td><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2194.png" alt="↔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Stable</td></tr><tr><td>LGC</td><td>$4.00</td><td>$3.10</td><td>$3.00 – $4.00</td><td>↓ Massive oversupply</td></tr></tbody></table></figure> </div> </div> ESC softened to $22.00 mid-month before a sharp 31st March rally to $24.50, as an anticipated large surge in final Commercial Lighting Formula (CLF) registrations only partially materialise before CLF method closed. VEECs dipped to $82.00 before compliance buying ahead of the 30 April surrender, perhaps combined with confirmation of a $100 shortfall penalty, pushed prices to $84.00 by month end. ACCUs drifted marginally – a brief rise to $36.85 on residual Safeguard Mechanism demand faded once CY2025 compliance concluded, closing at $36.15. STCs were remarkably stable in a $0.05 band. LGCs continued their structural decline, breaching $3.00 intraday on 26 March before recovering slightly to $3.10. <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Regulatory Update – Program by Program NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>CLF Hard Close (31 March): All Commercial Lighting Formula implementations and registrations had to be completed by 31 March. Commercial lighting has been one of the highest-volume ESC supply activities – its removal is the most bullish structural development for ESC pricing in years. There are some ~20m in registered ESCs holdings ahead of the ~5.8m surrender obligation for CY2025 due October 2026.</li> <li>ESS Reform Consultations: ESIA (Northmore Gordon is a Sponsoring Member) lodged submissions to both the ESS Policy Reform and Rule Change consultations in February and met with NSW DCCEEW in person. Reform direction – including potential obligation increases and new activities – will be the dominant ESC pricing influence in H2 2026.</li> <li>Watch in April: First post-March registry data. A sharp drop in weekly creation volumes will confirm the supply removal is material.</li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>$100 Shortfall Penalty Confirmed (2026 & 2027): Up from $90, this reprices the tax effective market ceiling of $142.</li> <li>Targets Set: 4.4M VEECs for 2026, 4.6M for 2027. Mid-March creation volumes were tracking around the required pace.</li> <li>Industrial heat decarbonisation: The VEU is consulting on Electric Thermal Energy Storage, Gas Efficiency Upgrades, and Behind-the-Meter Biogas – targeting food & beverage, meat processing, and industrial gas users. Go-live expected Q3-Q4 2026. See our <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hamishmcgovern_big-news-for-victorian-industrial-and-commercial-activity-7442038248421548032-losV">LinkedIn post</a> for Northmore Gordon’s commentary on the proposed methods.</li> <li>VEU Strategic Review Bill: On track for Parliament H2 2026. Will enable flexible annual targets and streamline new activity introductions – the most significant VEEC policy event of the year.</li> <li>Gas Appliance Bans: All-electric requirements for new buildings from 1 January 2027; like-for-like gas hot water ban from 1 March 2027 – underpinning long-run heat pump installation demand.</li> <li>ESC Enforcement: ~$4.2M in VEECs forfeited and one business permanently suspended following an ESC investigation. The ESC’s strict enforcement stance continues, with <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/media-centre?field_release_date_1%5Bmin%5D=&field_release_date_1%5Bmax%5D=&field_sector%5B6%5D=6&keyword=">multiple recent accreditation cancellations</a>.</li> <li>Watch in April: Go-live announcement for the three new industrial activities.</li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Safeguard Mechanism / Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>31 March NGER Reporting Deadline: Safeguard-regulated facilities were required to finalise greenhouse gas accounts. This provided demand support through March.</li> <li>Permanent Exit Arrangement (1 July 2026): Government contract holders may exit permanently from 1 July, delivering ≥25% of outstanding ACCUs at a 60% discount on the exit payment. The volume of ACCUs potentially released to the secondary market is the largest near-term supply-side risk.</li> <li>Safeguard Mechanism Review (H2 2026): Will cover decline rates, international unit eligibility, TEBA pricing, and post-2030 design. EY analysis recommends bringing the review forward – if the government responds, the medium-term ACCU price thesis shifts materially bullish.</li> <li>Watch in April: Any pre-Federal Budget signal (budget typically May) on accelerating the Safeguard review timeline.</li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Large-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (LRET) – LGCs <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>LGC Structural Decline Continues: The LGC market remains under severe oversupply pressure with CER forecasting 64–66 million LGC creations in 2026 against a fixed LRET obligation of ~33,000 GWh, the structural imbalance shows no near-term resolution.</li> <li>State based Data-Centre requirements and eTES under the proposed VEU Industrial decarbonisation method may create some demand, but it is unlikely to be sufficient to impact the massive oversupply.</li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) – STCs <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>1 May Battery Deeming Step-Down: From 1 May, STC yields per home battery installation fall under new Renewable Energy (Electricity) Regulations. Expect a significant April installation rush as installers lock in higher yields – CER projects 520,000 home battery installs for 2026.</li> <li>2026 STP Set at 11.67% (RPP 16.67%): In line with expectations; provides full-year demand certainty for the clearing house.</li> <li>New Battery Documentation Requirements (1 March): Mandatory photographic documentation for battery installations now in effect.</li> <li>Phenix Trading Permanently Suspended (5 March): CER removed a fraudulent STC creator in a coordinated cross-scheme action with NSW and Victorian regulators – part of a broader 2026 enforcement uplift.</li> <li>Watch in April: Actual battery installation volumes and any clearing house queue build-up ahead of 1 May.</li> </ul> <div style="height:25px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.   The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-march-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – March Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>$1.6M win for sustainable community infrastructure.</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/1-6m-win-for-sustainable-community-infrastructure/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 22:10:59 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Upgrade]]></category> <category><![CDATA[GHG]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Heat Pumps]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Northmore Gordon]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=31913</guid> <description><![CDATA[We’re proud to announce that Northmore Gordon supported the City of Onkaparinga in successfully securing $1,601,850 in Round 2 of the Australian Government’s Community Energy Upgrades Fund for the Noarlunga Aquatic Recreation Centre Electrification Project. This grant forms part of the broader $10M+ upgrade to the iconic community facility, aimed at delivering long-term energy efficiency,... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/1-6m-win-for-sustainable-community-infrastructure/">$1.6M win for sustainable community infrastructure.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ We’re proud to announce that Northmore Gordon supported the City of Onkaparinga in successfully securing $1,601,850 in Round 2 of the Australian Government’s Community Energy Upgrades Fund for the Noarlunga Aquatic Recreation Centre Electrification Project. This grant forms part of the broader $10M+ upgrade to the iconic community facility, aimed at delivering long-term energy efficiency, emissions reduction and operational savings. Northmore Gordon’s role in the success: • Provided a technical review of electrification options and delivered recommendations on a decarbonisation pathway • Compiled a list of projects with outcomes aligned to Community Energy Upgrades Fund objectives (quantifying GHG reduction, energy savings, public benefit) • Collaborated with council to translate technical detail into a compelling, fundable grant application • Ensured the proposed solution stacked funding pathways with asset renewal plans The project will switch pool and space heating systems from gas to efficient electric heat pumps, contributing to significant emissions reductions and energy savings while improving resilience and comfort for the community. Why it matters: • Community infrastructure plays a key role in achieving decarbonisation targets • Strategic electrification reduces energy costs and eliminates gas reliance • Strong partnerships turn technical complexity into funded outcomes Want to electrify your community assets and win federal funding? Speak with a Northmore Gordon senior advisor today and get direct access to real expertise. The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/1-6m-win-for-sustainable-community-infrastructure/">$1.6M win for sustainable community infrastructure.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Australian Certificate Markets – February Update.</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-february-update/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2026 23:40:22 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[News]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ACCUs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Certificates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Efficiency]]></category> <category><![CDATA[ESS]]></category> <category><![CDATA[LGCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Market Update]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Northmore Gordon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[STCs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[VEECs]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=31891</guid> <description><![CDATA[Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director The Australian environmental certificate markets in February 2026 were characterised by a general softening in prices across most sectors, driven by high supply and the meeting of compliance deadlines. While the ACCU, ESC, LGC, and STC markets saw downward price pressure, the VEEC market remained a notable outlier, with... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-february-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – February Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director The Australian environmental certificate markets in February 2026 were characterised by a general softening in prices across most sectors, driven by high supply and the meeting of compliance deadlines. While the ACCU, ESC, LGC, and STC markets saw downward price pressure, the VEEC market remained a notable outlier, with prices continuing to climb despite strong creation rates. <div style="height:15px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>ACCU Softening: Prices for ACCUs drifted down from $37.50 to $36.25 as March 31 compliance demand was largely satisfied and the CER expecting issuance for 2026 to grow to 22-26m. </li> </ul> <div style="height:15px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>ESC Eased, while ESCs finished lower at $22.25 following increased end-of month registration volume. The NSW ESS had the statutory review and rule change consultations close in February. </li> </ul> <div style="height:15px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>VEEC Liquidity Constraints: Despite creation rates reaching 120k-130k per week (above the run rate for the 4.4M annual target), a lack of spot liquidity pushed prices up to finish February at $83.00.  The VEU Regulator the ESC continues to maintain a strict enforcement stance, <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/media-centre?keyword=&field_sector%5B6%5D=6&field_release_date_1%5Bmin%5D=&field_release_date_1%5Bmax%5D=" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">with multiple accreditation cancellations</a>.  In case you missed it the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/victorian-energy-upgrades/installers/industry-market-update-work-program" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">VEU workplan was updated</a> in December including insulation, hydronic heating, PBA streamlining, and more. </li> </ul> <div style="height:15px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>LGC Oversupply Crisis: The LGC market remains heavily oversupplied, with prices dropping below $4.00 and recovering slightly. NSW & Federal policy is now pivoting toward requiring “additionality” for new large-scale data centres to stimulate new investment. That AEMO predicts could be 12% of the grid by 2040. It remains to be seen if LGCs (or REGOs) are the mechanism to drive this investment. </li> </ul> <div style="height:15px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>STC Target Adjustment: The 2026 STP target has been set at 24 million certificates, a reduction from the previous year, contributing to a slight price softening to $39.60. </li> </ul> <div style="height:15px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> For daily pricing and charts, visit <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/certificate-prices/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page</a>.   The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/news/australian-certificate-markets-february-update/">Australian Certificate Markets – February Update.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Energy Savings Scheme reform proposed: stronger focus on gas reduction and electrification</title> <link>https://northmoregordon.com/government-scheme-updates/energy-savings-scheme-reform-february-2026/</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Hamish McGovern]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2026 03:57:47 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Government Scheme Updates]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Energy Savings Scheme (ESS)]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://northmoregordon.com/?p=31825</guid> <description><![CDATA[The Energy Savings Industry Association (ESIA) has released new modelling suggesting reform of the NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) could deliver stronger emissions reductions and better economic outcomes, particularly through a greater focus on gas reduction and electrification.  The report, released 18 February 2026, outlines options to strengthen the scheme as NSW faces rising energy... The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/government-scheme-updates/energy-savings-scheme-reform-february-2026/">Energy Savings Scheme reform proposed: stronger focus on gas reduction and electrification</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[ The Energy Savings Industry Association (ESIA) has released new modelling suggesting reform of the NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) could deliver stronger emissions reductions and better economic outcomes, particularly through a greater focus on gas reduction and electrification.  The report, released 18 February 2026, outlines options to strengthen the scheme as NSW faces rising energy costs, gas supply pressures and decarbonisation targets.  What’s been announced  According to ESIA, the current ESS has delivered cost-effective energy savings and emissions reductions, but may not be configured to address emerging challenges in gas demand and electrification at sufficient scale.  Modelling undertaken by Green Energy Markets, commissioned by ESIA, suggests:  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Prioritising electrification and gas reduction would deliver improved economic and environmental outcomes compared to maintaining current settings. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A dedicated gas reduction sub-target — or a separate gas-focused mechanism — could provide clearer long-term investment signals. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Reform should commence in 2026–27, with any new framework in place by 1 January 2028 to avoid delays in deployment. </li> </ul> The report is intended to inform ESIA’s submission to the NSW Government’s consultation on ESS reform.  Who it affects  The ESS underpins significant private sector investment in energy efficiency and emissions reduction activities across New South Wales.  Businesses with substantial electricity and gas consumption — including those in manufacturing, property, health, logistics and large commercial facilities — may see changes to:  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Eligible activities </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Certificate generation opportunities </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Relative incentives between electricity efficiency and gas reduction </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Investment signals for electrification projects </li> </ul> Participants in the certificate market, energy service providers, and organisations relying on ESS-linked projects as part of compliance or decarbonisation strategies will be particularly impacted.  Key details and timing  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Reform discussions are underway as part of the NSW Government’s ESS review process. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>ESIA recommends reform begin during 2026–27. </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>A revised framework should commence by 1 January 2028. </li> </ul> The report highlights the importance of early deployment to avoid slowing electrification and emissions abatement activity.  Why it matters  If reforms prioritise gas reduction and electrification, businesses with significant gas exposure may see stronger financial incentives to transition equipment and processes to efficient electric alternatives.  This could influence capital planning decisions over the next two to three years, particularly where facilities are already considering:  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Boiler and process heat upgrades </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Heat pump installations </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Electrification of plant and equipment </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Demand management investments </li> </ul> Changes to sub-targets or certificate structures may also affect certificate supply, pricing dynamics and project economics under the ESS.  For organisations with long-term decarbonisation commitments, the proposed direction signals that electrification will remain central to NSW policy settings.  What to do next  Businesses with material energy exposure should:  <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Monitor the NSW Government’s ESS consultation process </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Review planned capital upgrades against potential scheme changes </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Assess gas-related risks in light of emerging policy direction </li> </ul> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Consider participating in consultation if materially affected </li> </ul> Early planning may allow organisations to align investment timing with any revised incentive framework.  The NSW Government’s consultation process will determine whether the proposed reforms proceed. Further detail is expected as the review progresses through 2026–27 The post <a href="https://northmoregordon.com/government-scheme-updates/energy-savings-scheme-reform-february-2026/">Energy Savings Scheme reform proposed: stronger focus on gas reduction and electrification</a> appeared first on <a href="https://northmoregordon.com">Northmore Gordon</a>. ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>